ANALISIS FORECASTING PENJUALAN KOMODITAS HORTIKULTURA MULTIMUSIM PEPAYA DI HORTIMART AGRO CENTER SEMARANG
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23960/jiia.v12i3.8877
Abstract
Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan cara perhitungan peramalan menggunakan metode time series dengan 4 pendekatan, ditemukan bahwa peramalan penjualan pepaya di Hortimart Agro Center adalah 1268 kg dengan metode Moving Average, 1228,204 dengan metode Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.9), 1123,697 kg dengan metode Trend Analysis, dan 1092,102 kg dengan metode Multiplicative Decomposition dengan pola musiman kuartal (4 bulan). Berdasarkan perhitungan peramalan penjualan menggunakan keempat metode tersebut, nilai kesalahan akurasi peramalan terkecil ditemukan pada metode Trend Analysis, dengan nilai MAD sebesar 124,081, MSE sebesar 22.710,15, dan MAPE sebesar 24,7%. Dari hasil tersebut, disimpulkan bahwa metode Trend Analysis menjadi metode terbaik yang dapat digunakan oleh perusahaan Hortimart Agro Center untuk meramalkan penjualan pepaya karena memiliki nilai uji akurasi peramalan terkecil.
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