Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics of Chicken Meat in South Kalimantan: A Vector Autoregression Approach

Abstract

Chicken meat is a key source of affordable protein in South Kalimantan, yet prices often swing around Ramadan and Eid. This study measures short-run market dynamics among chicken, eggs, and rice and quantifies price volatility using monthly retail data from January 2020 to December 2024. Log prices are analyzed with a cointegration test that shows no long-run relationship, followed by a vector autoregression in first differences to trace impulse responses and variance decomposition, and a simple volatility model to characterize clustering and persistence. Results show mean reversion in chicken price changes, a clear pass-through from egg prices that lifts chicken within one to two months, and a small link from rice. By twelve months, egg shocks explain about one fifth of the variation in chicken price changes. Volatility clusters but tends to decline, consistent with a mean-reverting process. These findings support short-horizon management that uses eggs as an early-warning signal before festive periods and applies time-bounded market actions to keep poultry affordable.