Determinants of Indonesia’s Soybean Meal Imports: An Empirical Analysis for 1990–2022

Abstract

Indonesia’s heavy reliance on imported soybean meal (SBM) as the primary protein source in the livestock feed industry, particularly the poultry sector, has become a strategic issue for national food security. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing Indonesia’s SBM imports during 1990–2022 using multiple linear regression. Secondary data from FAOSTAT included eight independent variables: chicken population, cattle population, palm kernel production, domestic soybean production, urban population, soybean seed imports, egg production, and pig population. Results show the regression model is significant, with an Adjusted R² of 0.884, indicating that 88.4% of the variation in SBM imports is explained by the variables. Chicken population and urban population have significant positive effects on SBM imports, while palm kernel production and pig population have significant negative effects. Domestic soybean production and soybean seed imports are not significant, suggesting limited substitution potential from local sources. These findings reveal that Indonesia’s feed industry remains highly dependent on imports and vulnerable to external shocks. Strategic policies are recommended, including diversifying local feed ingredients, increasing domestic soybean production, strengthening import regulations, developing local protein extraction technology, and enhancing research and feed information systems.