RISK OF RICE YIELDS CAUSED BY TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL CHANGE IN KARAWANG WEST JAVA

Abstract

Karawang Regency is experiencing climate change as seen by changes in temperature and rainfall, which impacts the agricultural sector, especially a decrease in rice yields. Change of rice yields due to variations in temperature and raifall can be studied using hazard, vulnerability and risk analysis. This research identified the magnitude of temperature and rainfall variations and analyze the potential for hazard, vulnerability, and risk of reduced rice yields in Karawang Regency. This research uses descriptive and quantitative methods.  The data used are rainfall, temperature, rice planting and harvest area, rice production, and socioeconomic data of farmers from BPS, BMKG, and the Karawang Regency Agriculture and Food Security Office, and other sources. This study found the fact that Karawang Regency experienced a decrease in average rainfall of 109.97 mm and an increase in average air  temperature of 0.9⁰C in the period 1991 - 2022.  The sub-districts that have a very high risk of rice production decline with risks index >0.81 are Tempuran and Tirtajaya sub-districts; high risk of rice production decline with risks index 0.61 - 0.80 is Cilamaya Wetan sub-district.  Most other sub-districts in Karawang Regency have a risk of decreasing rice yields at varying levels, from very low to moderate.