Applied the Holt–Winter Forecasting Method for Rice Production: A Case Study of Cianjur and Indramayu Regencies, West Java, Indonesia
Abstract
The current food problem in Indonesia is uneven food availability. Differences in rice planting and harvesting areas due to land conversion from rice fields to residential areas and extreme climate change have caused instability in rice production. Cianjur and Indramayu, as rice production centers in West Java, have experienced rice production fluctuation from 2010 to 2023. The rice harvest area in both regions has even experienced a downward trend, which has had a direct impact on agricultural productivity. This study aims to predict rice production using the Holt-Winters multiplicative method for rice production from 2024 to 2030. By using yearly rice production data from 2010 to 2023 in Cianjur and Indramayu regencies, focusing on model evaluation by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The analysis results show that by using multiplicative Holt Winters model, predicted rice production in Cianjur experienced downward then upward trend in 2030 with a MAPE value of 1.00% and for Indramayu Regency experienced upward trend in the following years with a MAPE value of 0.74%. Thus, these prediction results can be used as a basis in supporting policy formulation and strategic decision-making related to food security program planning.
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